You have all heard that to win at sports betting, you have to bet on value bets, it’s true. Understanding the value of odds and identifying a value bet is one of the most important aspects of sport trading and sports betting! So how do we bet well and calculate a value bet? What is the expected value of a rating? What is a value bet finder? This is what we will see in this article through the concrete example of calculating the odds of a football match.

Value Bet: What is it?

We speak of value bet , when the implied probability of an odds is greater than the probability of an event occurring. In other words, when a rating is poorly adjusted and offers the bettor a theoretical mathematical advantage.

Betting on a value bet odds does not guarantee that the bet will pass, but it represents a positive statistical advantage, so as to ensure a profit in the long term.

Value bets do not exempt the bettor from having rigorous management of his bankroll. As you choose the ๋จนํŠ€ bets you can have the smartest choices for the same. The fund that you will keep for the same needs to be perfect and adequate. In case you make the right move and win, you will be able to make use of the fiund.

Odds and probability

Each rating reflects an implicit probability: the probability that this event will occur. Probability is a measure of the chances that an event will take place and can take a value between 0 (0%) and 1 (100%). A value of 0 means that the result is impossible and a value of 1 means that the result is certain.

Each bookmaker, when it offers a sports betting odds, therefore calculates the probability that this event will take place. A rating at at 2 represents a 50% chance a rating at at 1.5 represents 66.67%, etc.

The conversion formula: odds and probability

How do you convert probability to odds?

Calculate Value Bet Probability Rating Formula and reciprocally :

Calculate Value Bet Odds Probability Formula

Conversion table: Odds / Probability

Yes, manual calculation puts you off. You can find a conversion tool and a odds / probability table here:

Expected value positive and negative

From the two previous formulas, we will be able to evaluate and separate the ratings into two categories: the expected value positive and the expected value negative.

That is, the odds that represent a greater or lesser probability that an event will occur. In general, the odds offered by bookmakers tend to represent a negative expected value. The difference between the actual probability of an event and a rating represents the profit margin taken by the bookie.